Что будет после капитализма? — Paul Mason
What will come after capitalism? — Paul Mason
The ideal machine is one that costs nothing and lasts forever. — Karl Marx
Capitalism is an adaptive system, 50 year cycles, technological innovation commencing the next cycle.
How can we today, have technological innovation and no growth? Due to the unique behaviour of information and information goods.
With information goods, we should have abundance, instead we have artificial scarcity.
Since late 1970s, wages in US have flat-lined. Post-WWII, productivity and wages increased in step. Post-1980s they have diverged, productivity has increased, wages have not. A transfer of wealth from wage earners to owners of capital.
Who is to buy the output of increased productivity? If wages do not rise, it is financed by growing debt.
$57 trillion added to global debt since collapse of Lehman Brothers.
When the dotcom com bubble burst in 2001 global debt was 200% of GDP. Debt is now 300% of GDP.
If there is an over supply of something, its price falls. Cost of money has fallen. Interest rates have fallen. 12 trillion dollars of money worldwide now attracts negative interest rate.
When we speak of free money, we mean the money is free, ie no interest paid.
Classic Marxism, cost is the sum of land, money and labour. We now have a fourth factor, information.
Information freely flows, information products can be reproduced infinitely at near zero cost, information does not wear out.
Information cost nothing to reproduce, does not wear out. A digital book does not wear out when I read it, I can run off copies for my friends. The same applies to digital music. It does not wear out no matter how many times I listen, I can run off many copies to my friends, I can share via the internet.
Feel free to listen to The Way of the Bow, share with your friends, download.
Information naturally flows, all that stops it flowing is Draconian intellectual property legalisation. This is not a freely functioning market, this is near monopolies using the law to control the market.
As we saw with the collapse of the Soviet Union, Draconian control ultimately fails.
Free flow of information encourages innovation.
With information products, the price tends to zero.
99p a song on iTunes. On Spotify a pittance.
Would have to sell 1500 songs on iTunes to earn minimum wage. On Spotify 1.2 million plays.
How then do we reward the creator?
On leanpub and bandcamp, artists set a minimum price. Those who choose to pay for a download, can pay more.
It is not only information goods where the price is falling to zero, also physical goods with a high information contents. Or it would if we had a functioning market.
It is only monopolies or near monopolies, bought and paid for naked political power, that maintains the price.
Contrast the price of high performance smart phones, One Plus One, One Plus Two, One Plus Three, One Plus 3T, with equivalent phones from Samsung or Apple.
Nearly half of all jobs will be replaced by robots and automation. Many of the remaining jobs, low paid, temporary, zero hours.
We have the creation of what David Graeber calls bullshit jobs. Half a dozen immigants with dirty rags and a bucket of water replace an automatic car wash.
Peter Thiel represents all that is wrong with Silicon Valley. Serfs working for apps, transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich. No surprise he backs Donald Trump and is on his advisory panel.
Donald Trump has well documented links with the gangster capitalism Vladimir Putin heads.
When government shrinks, social spending cut, what rises is spending on surveillance, from which Silicon Valley will benefit.
Peter Thiel is reminiscent of the German industrialists who backed Adolf Hitler.
Capitalism ended in 2008. It has lost its ability to adapt.
A banking crisis led to an economic crisis, to a social crisis and now a global geo-political crisis.
TTIP is dead, CETA and TPP in final death throws.
The Soviet Union collapsed overnight. In 2017 we are likely to see the collapse of the EU. Brexit is now a side show. Italy is poised to hold a referendum on leaving the EU.
In Greece it was thought there may be a coup by the military. Democracy was destroyed by the EU.
Across the world there is now a grass roots reaction to neo-liberalism, which has led to a fall in living standards, transfer of wealth from poor to the rich, environmental destruction, global warming.
It is on the fringes we see collapse of Empire.
Blockadia represents the front line, often resembling a war zone.
What are we do to do as capitalism collapses?
A neo-Feudal system, oligarchs, politicians like Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, the rest of society reduced to serfs?
Or a cooperative system, contribution to the sharing and collaborative commons?